Monday, April 13, 2009
Quick 2009 predictions
Just to start this year I'm going to go with the NL Central predictions.
Cardinals 97 wins
Cubs 94 wins
Brewers 88 wins
Reds 78 wins
Astros 72 wins
Pirates 66 wins.
Of course I'm going to pick the Cardinals first, but it isn't blind homerism, I honestly think that the Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies and Mets are the most talented team in the national league, I just think that the Cardinals pitching is going to suprise a lot of people who are picking a Carpenter injury, a Wainwright fall and a failure of one of the three remaining, my pick says that the Cardinals fifth best starter will end up being the best fifth best starter in the NL. (my guess is that it will end up being Pineiro who is going to post an ERA+ of 98.)
The bullpen will be better, for two reasons, one it can't be worse, and two without Isringhausen (established veteran) as a closer TLR will be more inclined to pull a pitcher who clearly doesn't have his stuff. In the past Issy would come in and TLR would basically keep him in there until he blew it, even though it was apparent to almost everyone that he didn't have his best stuff. With Motte, Perez, Kinney and even Franklin closing out games, TLR has the chance to do what he likes best and that is rely on matchups. Eventually I feel that Motte will end up with the majority of the saves, but while he is struggling early on TLR can experiment more. If Franklin gets the closer role for the second half of the season, it will be an indication that we aren't in the post season.
OPS+ predictions for the lineup
Molina (105)
Pujols (185)
Schumaker (110)
Greene (105)
Freese (95)
Glaus (125)
Ludwick (145)
Ankiel (135)
Duncan (130)
Rasmus (110)
Cardinals 97 wins
Cubs 94 wins
Brewers 88 wins
Reds 78 wins
Astros 72 wins
Pirates 66 wins.
Of course I'm going to pick the Cardinals first, but it isn't blind homerism, I honestly think that the Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies and Mets are the most talented team in the national league, I just think that the Cardinals pitching is going to suprise a lot of people who are picking a Carpenter injury, a Wainwright fall and a failure of one of the three remaining, my pick says that the Cardinals fifth best starter will end up being the best fifth best starter in the NL. (my guess is that it will end up being Pineiro who is going to post an ERA+ of 98.)
The bullpen will be better, for two reasons, one it can't be worse, and two without Isringhausen (established veteran) as a closer TLR will be more inclined to pull a pitcher who clearly doesn't have his stuff. In the past Issy would come in and TLR would basically keep him in there until he blew it, even though it was apparent to almost everyone that he didn't have his best stuff. With Motte, Perez, Kinney and even Franklin closing out games, TLR has the chance to do what he likes best and that is rely on matchups. Eventually I feel that Motte will end up with the majority of the saves, but while he is struggling early on TLR can experiment more. If Franklin gets the closer role for the second half of the season, it will be an indication that we aren't in the post season.
OPS+ predictions for the lineup
Molina (105)
Pujols (185)
Schumaker (110)
Greene (105)
Freese (95)
Glaus (125)
Ludwick (145)
Ankiel (135)
Duncan (130)
Rasmus (110)
