Thursday, January 06, 2011
Jack Morris Hall of Fame?
The second in an ongoing series. I'll probably revisit this one to work out the kinks in the argument. Again I would appreciate any feed back or counter arguments.
I'm not going to lie, I don't see any argument for Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame, he would be a mistake of monumental proportions, so it's tough for me to create an argument for him.
Jack Morris traditional stats 254-186 w/l record, .577 winning percentage, 3.90 era, 105 era+, 527 games started, 175 complete games, 28 shutouts, 3824 innings pitched, 2478 strikeouts, 1.296 whip. Pitchers go into the hof by either a high peak(Koufax, Dean etc) or a high quality long career, Morris doesn't have either of those going for him.
Let's look at a few things in detail. Morris 254 wins is 32nd all time, that is a nice point in his favor. Players not in the hall of fame, and probably never will be, ahead of him Jamie Moyer with 267, Jim Kaat 283, Tommy John 288. Obvioualy 254 isn't a magic number for wins. It's a nice point in his favor, but of course wins are a team stat. It helps being on a good team. Among pitchers with over 200 wins, a list of 87 people, Morris is 76 in era+, 81st in ERA. Among hall of fame pitchers, his 105 era+ would tie for 58th(out of 60) and his 3.90 would be 60th. You can't bring an argument for Morris for the hall of fame based upon his career numbers relative to hall of famers, he would be the absolute worse starting pitcher in the hall(the guys who have similar career numbers have high peaks where they were among the best in the game, or at least perceived to be)
a weak argument for a player is to use the lowest common denominator argument, by arguing that the player you are arguing for is better than weak choices. The problem with that argument is that not only are you arguing for your candidate, you are tacitly arguing for a few dozen other players who probably don't belong. In Morris case, if you are arguing he's as good as Catfish Hunter or Rube Marquard, then you are asking to add Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jack Quinn, Dennis Martinez, Frank Tanana, David Wells, Mel Harder, Jerry Koosman etc, and that is just a quick glance.
Pitcher go into the hof one of four ways, you have inner circle guys, you have career guys, you have peak guys and you have relievers. Morris isn't a career guy as pointed out, he just doesn't match up to the standard that is established for the hof. How about peak, does he stack up well there, In Morris's case it's best to take a 7 year peak that allows him to include a couple of 124/126 era+ seasons. Even best possible light his peak years gives him 117 era+. Among hof pitchers, that 7 year peak would be 34th out of 58, in comparison to the hof pitchers career totals. Heck his best season is a 133 era+, every single hof pitcher has at least one season better than that. Heck let's look at 21 wins and 133 era+, 46 hofers did that at least once.
Morris only semi-argument is the "winningest pitcher of the decade" it's an arbitrary distinction that is a fortuituous luck on his part. He wasn't the best pitcher in the decade, he wasn't the best pitcher for any 2 year stretch during the decade, but he got lucky that he pitched during a transition period. Some will argue that every pitcher that has the most wins in a decade is in the hof(or will be) but again we are dealing with a luck of the draw and an arbitrary cutoff number, if you go from 1984-1993 Frank Viola is the most winningest pitcher of the decade or 1977-1986 is Ron Guidry.
Morris simple expected record. pyth win percentage is based upon runs allowed and runs scored to come up with a winning percentage. Morris run support in games he started for his career is 4.9, his runs allowed is 4.27 per game, a simple rule about decisions is that for every 9 innings you have in your career as a starting pitcher, you will have roughly 1 decision. For Morris that equals out to about 424 career decisions(in reality he has 440) based upon applying his pyth(.568) to his career record and you expect him to have a record of 241-183, if you base it upon his actual number of decisions you have an expected record of 250-190. His actual won loss record was 254-186, any argument about him knowing how to win isn't reflected here, you are talking about a swing of 8 games, that is it. There is no reason to think that he is somehow better than the numbers indicate, and his numbers indicate that he is a solid workmanlike pitcher. He probably pitched/participated in one of the most memorable post season pitched games in history, but that isn't enough to put him in the hof.
The argument about Morris pitching to the score has been pretty much destroyed. link to one such study.http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1815
Again I'm not a fan of WAR(wins above replacement) but it does have some uses, Jack Morris career rank in War among players not in the hall of fame is 41, behind such luminaries as Bob Welch, Kenny Rogers, Dutch Leonard, Bob Friend, Vida Blue, David Wells.
How about looking at his career line as an individual season, his 3.90 era, and 16 wins and 33 starts is reminiscent of
Chris Capuano for the Brewers in 2005, John Lieber of the Phillies in 2005, Woody Williams for the Cardinals(not his good year) in 2003, Bill Gullickson for the Tigers in 1991, Ervin Santan for the Angels in 2010. Did anyone think they were watching a potential hofer in those years? His best season was his first full season in the majors, and it's equivalent to Justin Verlander's year last year. Put it this way, Justin Verlander vs Jack Morris,
Verlander---Morris
era+ (wins)
132(19)--133(17)
126(17)--127(21)
125(18)--126(18)
124(18)--125(18)
---------124(14)
---------122(16)
---------117(20)
---------109(19)
---------102(21)
---------100(17)
Basically Verlander has already equaled Morris's best seasons. Two more years like his last two and then he can pitch like Suppan for the rest of his career to equal Morris's resume. Nobody thinks Verlander is already a hof pitcher, but in comparison to Morris, he already looks as good.
there is just no way to put Morris into the hof without opening the door to dozens of other better pitchers.
I'm not going to lie, I don't see any argument for Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame, he would be a mistake of monumental proportions, so it's tough for me to create an argument for him.
Jack Morris traditional stats 254-186 w/l record, .577 winning percentage, 3.90 era, 105 era+, 527 games started, 175 complete games, 28 shutouts, 3824 innings pitched, 2478 strikeouts, 1.296 whip. Pitchers go into the hof by either a high peak(Koufax, Dean etc) or a high quality long career, Morris doesn't have either of those going for him.
Let's look at a few things in detail. Morris 254 wins is 32nd all time, that is a nice point in his favor. Players not in the hall of fame, and probably never will be, ahead of him Jamie Moyer with 267, Jim Kaat 283, Tommy John 288. Obvioualy 254 isn't a magic number for wins. It's a nice point in his favor, but of course wins are a team stat. It helps being on a good team. Among pitchers with over 200 wins, a list of 87 people, Morris is 76 in era+, 81st in ERA. Among hall of fame pitchers, his 105 era+ would tie for 58th(out of 60) and his 3.90 would be 60th. You can't bring an argument for Morris for the hall of fame based upon his career numbers relative to hall of famers, he would be the absolute worse starting pitcher in the hall(the guys who have similar career numbers have high peaks where they were among the best in the game, or at least perceived to be)
a weak argument for a player is to use the lowest common denominator argument, by arguing that the player you are arguing for is better than weak choices. The problem with that argument is that not only are you arguing for your candidate, you are tacitly arguing for a few dozen other players who probably don't belong. In Morris case, if you are arguing he's as good as Catfish Hunter or Rube Marquard, then you are asking to add Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jack Quinn, Dennis Martinez, Frank Tanana, David Wells, Mel Harder, Jerry Koosman etc, and that is just a quick glance.
Pitcher go into the hof one of four ways, you have inner circle guys, you have career guys, you have peak guys and you have relievers. Morris isn't a career guy as pointed out, he just doesn't match up to the standard that is established for the hof. How about peak, does he stack up well there, In Morris's case it's best to take a 7 year peak that allows him to include a couple of 124/126 era+ seasons. Even best possible light his peak years gives him 117 era+. Among hof pitchers, that 7 year peak would be 34th out of 58, in comparison to the hof pitchers career totals. Heck his best season is a 133 era+, every single hof pitcher has at least one season better than that. Heck let's look at 21 wins and 133 era+, 46 hofers did that at least once.
Morris only semi-argument is the "winningest pitcher of the decade" it's an arbitrary distinction that is a fortuituous luck on his part. He wasn't the best pitcher in the decade, he wasn't the best pitcher for any 2 year stretch during the decade, but he got lucky that he pitched during a transition period. Some will argue that every pitcher that has the most wins in a decade is in the hof(or will be) but again we are dealing with a luck of the draw and an arbitrary cutoff number, if you go from 1984-1993 Frank Viola is the most winningest pitcher of the decade or 1977-1986 is Ron Guidry.
Morris simple expected record. pyth win percentage is based upon runs allowed and runs scored to come up with a winning percentage. Morris run support in games he started for his career is 4.9, his runs allowed is 4.27 per game, a simple rule about decisions is that for every 9 innings you have in your career as a starting pitcher, you will have roughly 1 decision. For Morris that equals out to about 424 career decisions(in reality he has 440) based upon applying his pyth(.568) to his career record and you expect him to have a record of 241-183, if you base it upon his actual number of decisions you have an expected record of 250-190. His actual won loss record was 254-186, any argument about him knowing how to win isn't reflected here, you are talking about a swing of 8 games, that is it. There is no reason to think that he is somehow better than the numbers indicate, and his numbers indicate that he is a solid workmanlike pitcher. He probably pitched/participated in one of the most memorable post season pitched games in history, but that isn't enough to put him in the hof.
The argument about Morris pitching to the score has been pretty much destroyed. link to one such study.http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1815
Again I'm not a fan of WAR(wins above replacement) but it does have some uses, Jack Morris career rank in War among players not in the hall of fame is 41, behind such luminaries as Bob Welch, Kenny Rogers, Dutch Leonard, Bob Friend, Vida Blue, David Wells.
How about looking at his career line as an individual season, his 3.90 era, and 16 wins and 33 starts is reminiscent of
Chris Capuano for the Brewers in 2005, John Lieber of the Phillies in 2005, Woody Williams for the Cardinals(not his good year) in 2003, Bill Gullickson for the Tigers in 1991, Ervin Santan for the Angels in 2010. Did anyone think they were watching a potential hofer in those years? His best season was his first full season in the majors, and it's equivalent to Justin Verlander's year last year. Put it this way, Justin Verlander vs Jack Morris,
Verlander---Morris
era+ (wins)
132(19)--133(17)
126(17)--127(21)
125(18)--126(18)
124(18)--125(18)
---------124(14)
---------122(16)
---------117(20)
---------109(19)
---------102(21)
---------100(17)
Basically Verlander has already equaled Morris's best seasons. Two more years like his last two and then he can pitch like Suppan for the rest of his career to equal Morris's resume. Nobody thinks Verlander is already a hof pitcher, but in comparison to Morris, he already looks as good.
there is just no way to put Morris into the hof without opening the door to dozens of other better pitchers.
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Good Stuff CFB.
and I still say that Omar Vizquel is a better offensive player than Ozzie Smith.
Cheers!
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and I still say that Omar Vizquel is a better offensive player than Ozzie Smith.
Cheers!
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